Olivia Chow’s Lead Under Pressure as Brad Bradford Gains Momentum in the Race for Mayor
Report: Mehboob Ali Shaikh
According to the latest political survey in Toronto, the race between incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow and Councillor Brad Bradford is becoming far more competitive than expected. Although Chow continues to lead in overall voter support, Bradford appears to hold a narrow edge in a direct head-to-head matchup.
The survey also revealed that more than 62% of Toronto residents believe the city is heading in the wrong direction, while traffic congestion, the rising cost of living, and crime have emerged as the city’s top concerns. These issues could play a decisive role in the next mayoral election.
The latest survey on Toronto’s upcoming mayoral election has sparked fresh political debate. Data released by Mainstreet Research suggests that while Mayor Olivia Chow remains ahead, her challenger Brad Bradford is rapidly narrowing the gap.
According to the survey, if an election were held today, 43.6% of decided voters would support Olivia Chow, while 37.8% favor Brad Bradford. Around 18.6% said they would choose another candidate.
However, when respondents were asked about a direct two-candidate contest between Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford, the result shifted significantly.
In that scenario, 51.9% supported Bradford, compared with 48.1% for Chow. Political analysts say these figures indicate that if the race narrows, the current mayor could face a serious challenge.
Another major finding was that a large number of Toronto residents are dissatisfied with the city’s current direction.
According to the survey:
- 62.2% said Toronto is moving in the “wrong direction”
- 23.2% believe the city is on the right track
- 14.6% remain undecided
Political observers suggest this dissatisfaction may become the greatest political challenge for the incumbent mayor.
The survey also found that 45.7% of respondents said they would not vote for Olivia Chow under any circumstances, while only 25.1% expressed the same view about Brad Bradford.
Similarly, only 40.8% approved of Olivia Chow’s performance as mayor, while 56% expressed dissatisfaction.
According to Mainstreet Research President Quito Maggi, these figures are concerning for the mayor because a significant portion of voters may already have formed a negative opinion.
Residents were also asked which issue matters most in the mayoral election.
Results showed:
Transportation and traffic congestion — 27.3%
Inflation and rising cost of living — 25.8%
Crime and public safety — 23.5%
Jobs and economic growth — 6.8%
Services for seniors — 5.1%
Other issues — 11.5%
The findings suggest voters are prioritizing everyday quality-of-life concerns over political messaging.
The survey also measured public reaction to Toronto City Hall’s decision to sell FIFA World Cup 2026 tickets to corporate sponsors at a profit.
49.4% opposed the move, while 37.1% supported it, with the remainder undecided.
Many residents believe such decisions could affect public trust, although the city argues the move would reduce the financial burden on taxpayers.
Public opinion was also divided regarding the Ontario government’s proposal to expand Billy Bishop Airport.
55.8% opposed the project, while 37.9% supported it.
This contrasts with previous claims by Premier Doug Ford that most residents support the expansion. Meanwhile, Mayor Olivia Chow and several community groups remain among the project’s critics.
At present, 23 candidates are officially registered for the mayoral race. However, political observers believe the real contest is likely to be between Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford.
The survey was conducted between June 12 and June 18, 2026, among 1,157 adult respondents through online and telephone interviews, with a reported margin of error of ±2.9%.
Journalist’s Analysis:
Toronto politics appears to be at a critical turning point. If current public dissatisfaction continues, Olivia Chow’s path to re-election may become increasingly difficult. At the same time, Brad Bradford will need to maintain his momentum by presenting clear and practical solutions on traffic, housing, affordability, and public safety.
